Trade balance had a positive balance of US $ 4.7 billion in March
The trade balance in March was US $ 4.7 billion, an amount that exceeds that registered in the same month in 2019, of US $ 417 million. In the first quarter, the surplus was $ 5.6 billion, down from $ 9 billion in the first quarter of 2019.
The results are published in the Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex), released today (14) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV / Ibre).
According to Icomex, in value, exports increased 10.4% in the month and imports 10.6%, when compared to March 2019. Between the first two quarters of the two years, however, exports fell by 9% and imports rose 4.3%.
The volume of trade flows had a positive year-on-year variation of 13.0% in exports and 14.6% in imports when comparing the months of March.
According to FGV, since October exports fell in the monthly variation between 2019 and 2020. The only month that this did not happen was in December, but, even so, it was stagnant. Imports had been increasing since December.
Coronavirus
According to FGV, the effects of the pandemic do not yet appear in foreign trade statistics, “and this is evident in the study published on the World Trade Organization (WTO) page, which estimates a drop in world trade of 12.9% in a scenario optimistic and 31.9% in the pessimistic scenario “.
FGV points out, however, that the projections are preliminary, because the uncertainties regarding the duration, intensity and geographical expansion of covid-19 remain on the world stage.
“The effects do not appear in the statistics of the WTO nor in those of Brazil. Those of the WTO only go until 2019 and in ours until March 2020, but they do not appear in the Brazilian trade balance because there is a time in foreign trade contracts and shipments What is being shipped now are contracts made before, “explained FGV researcher Lia Valls to Agência Brasil.
The WTO study already pointed to a slowdown in world trade starting in 2019, as a result of trade tensions between the United States and China. The drop between 2018 and 2019 was 0.1%.
“The unfavorable behavior of export prices means that the growth of exports is dependent on the increase in volume, a result more difficult to be guaranteed in a year in which a global recession is expected”, evaluated FGV.
The volume exported to the China and Asia market, excluding China and the Middle East, shows positive variations in the comparison between the accumulated for the year up to March 2019 and 2020.
According to Icomex, in all months of the quarter, exports grew, with soy sales of 44%, iron ore of 21% and beef of 116%. These results explain the increase registered in trade with China. However, the reduction in soybean shipments to that country may impact exports, which are expected to fall in the second half.
With an increase of 28.6%, agriculture stood out among all sectors that registered positive variation in March compared to the previous year. The 310% increase in the manufacturing industry was influenced by sales of fuel oil, which is the fourth main product on the list. FGV pointed out, however, that in relation to the quarter, only agriculture showed an increase of 1.4%.
Future
According to FGV, amidst the uncertainties of the effects of the crisis caused by the infestation of the new coronavirus in the world, the projections are always subject to revisions and errors. “In the current view, expectations point to a worse performance in international trade than that registered in the financial crisis of 2009. At that time, the volume decreased 12.1%, but recovered the following year and grew 14.4%. situation may not be repeated “.
“Not only can the fall in 2020 be greater, but the slowest recovery. The covid-19 crisis has affected the transport of cargo and people, logistics channels and global value chains. A debate arises as to whether countries will review their policies, especially in those sectors where dependence on imports is high. In other words, the world will be more protectionist, “added FGV.
Source: www.noticias.uol.com.br